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Reporting

Stefanik Gains Ground on Hochul as New York Governor Race Tightens

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is showing momentum against Gov. Kathy Hochul in the race for New York governor, according to a new Sienna University poll, narrowing the incumbent’s lead and making the contest increasingly…

Andrew Powell·Nov 18, 2025·2 min read

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Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is showing momentum against Gov. Kathy Hochul in the race for New York governor, according to a new Sienna University poll, narrowing the incumbent’s lead and making the contest increasingly competitive.

According to the New York Post, the survey, conducted November 10-12 and released Tuesday, shows Hochul leading Stefanik 52% to 32% in a head-to-head matchup.

However, Stefanik has made notable gains among independents and Republicans, signaling a potential shake-up in the general election.

“In the race against Stefanik, Hochul continues to run very strongly with Democrats, 78-9%, however, Stefanik has now widened her lead among Republicans, 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September, and significantly narrowed the gap among independents, with whom Hochul now leads 40-36%, down from 43-25% in September,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.

Geographically, Hochul maintains a commanding 42-point lead in New York City, but her advantage shrinks to nine points in the downstate suburbs and a razor-thin three points upstate, highlighting the competitive nature of the race outside the city.

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Stefanik Gains Ground on Hochul as New York Governor Race Tightens — IJR

Hochul’s overall favorability has also dipped slightly, falling two points to 43%. “Currently, 42% of voters are prepared to re-elect Hochul, while 48% would prefer ‘someone else,’ improved from 37-51% in September,” Greenberg said. Among voters favoring a change, 30% prefer another Democrat, while 53% are leaning toward a Republican.

The poll surveyed more than 800 registered New York voters and does not yet account for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who has recently stepped up his efforts to enter the Republican primary.

Stefanik’s campaign strategist, Alex DeGrasse, dismissed the poll as “biased,” arguing it ignored other independent surveys showing the race within the margin of error.

“Another false and biased poll that the Far Left media laps up while ignoring multiple independent polls showing this race within the margin of error once you properly account for likely voters and proper geographical representation based on historical turnout,” he said.

With Stefanik narrowing the gap among independents and Republicans, the general election in New York is shaping up to be a closely watched and potentially contentious contest as both sides ramp up their campaigns.