El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Excess Deaths

A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab analysis projects that extreme heat linked to the developing super El Niño could cause about 451,000 excess deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027, including roughly 239,000 from September through February. The model-based estimates have not yet been peer-reviewed; researchers forecast global land temperatures about 1.2°C above normal and 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year. The greatest projected toll is in lower-income regions: the Sahel could see about 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, while Indonesia, Sudan and parts of Southeast Asia are also expected to face severe impacts. The United States is projected to have about 3,500 additional heat deaths and Australia about 260. Researchers warn the toll could rise if El Niño and its lingering heat effects continue into 2027, and say advance heat warnings, health outreach, cooling and hydration access could help save lives.