Europe expects Q4 jet-fuel deficit of 510,000 bpd

Europe is heading into the fourth quarter with an estimated jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day as disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies have eliminated roughly half of the region’s imports. Buyers are increasingly relying on distant suppliers including South Korea, Nigeria, the United States and Canada, with South Korean shipments to Europe reaching about 129,000 barrels per day in September—the highest level since October 2022. Energy Aspects forecasts surpluses of 18,000 barrels per day in the United States and 419,000 barrels per day in Asia-Pacific, creating incentives for those regions to export to Europe. Wider price spreads are making shipments to Europe more profitable, while low inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub and broader middle-distillate market tightness are adding to supply concerns. Rising Middle East tensions leave Europe vulnerable to further disruptions and are expected to sustain strong demand for overseas cargoes.