UN warns world likely to overshoot 1.5°C, sees possible path back

A suite of UN-backed assessments warns that the world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold in coming years, but emphasizes that overshoot is not a foregone catastrophe if rapid emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal are pursued. The UNEP reports advocate an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway, projecting possible peaks around 1.8°C before temperatures are driven back below 1.5°C as fossil fuels are phased out and negative emissions scale up. Scientists and officials warn that every fraction of a degree and every year spent above 1.5°C heightens risks from extreme weather, sea-level rise, ecosystem loss and health impacts, while stressing the importance of combining mitigation with adaptation. While some experts acknowledge the overshoot reality, they stress there is still a window to limit long-term harm, but it requires unprecedented political will and investment in climate-safe futures. Voices from the U.N., scientists, and vulnerable nations alike call for urgent action, noting that even a temporary overshoot carries significant damage and that crossing the threshold is not an automatic doom scenario but a challenge to manage with decisive policy changes.