Very Strong El Niño Expected, Threatening Millions

Forecasts indicate El Niño is strengthening, with a potentially very strong event later in 2026 and effects that could extend into 2027. Its uneven impacts may include extreme heat, drought, disrupted monsoons, flooding and crop losses, putting pressure on food and water supplies, electricity systems, inflation and national economies. Health risks are also a major concern: reports project additional heat-related deaths in the Philippines and South Africa, while warnings point to wider risks including illness and child malnutrition. Governments and humanitarian groups are preparing for possible emergencies, and officials have warned that climate shocks could intensify food insecurity, displacement and conflict. The economic damage will vary by country, depending in part on exposure and the strength of financial and policy buffers.