Social Security's 2027 COLA Forecast Faces Medicare Costs

Forecasters put Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at roughly 3.5% to 3.6%, above the 2.8% increase for 2026, though the official figure is due Oct. 14 after September inflation data is released. At 3.5%, estimates suggest the average retired worker’s monthly benefit would rise by about $72 to $73, with the precise dollar change depending on the benefit baseline used. The increase may be partly offset by higher Medicare costs: the standard Part B premium is projected to rise, and the standard Part D deductible has been set to increase from $615 to $700. One analysis also links inflation pressure to tariffs and the Iran war, while warning that larger benefit adjustments add costs to Social Security.