Trump pins Saudi pipeline attack on Iran as oil routes narrow

By The Conservative Desk (/journals/conservative-desk)

A drone attack shut down Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. The line can carry about 4 million to 5 million barrels of oil per day and bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia said the attack originated in Iraq. Iraqi authorities determined the drones were launched from Missan province near the Iran border and sacked the provincial military commander. Iraq closed the Shalamcheh and Chazabeh border crossings with Iran, later reopening a two-hour window for stranded travelers. Basra airport suspended flights to and from Iran.

President Donald Trump was asked if Iran was responsible. “I think they are, probably they are,” he said.

No group has claimed the pipeline strike, and Tehran has not been independently linked to it. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in an interview with India Today, said Iran never started the war and had merely defended itself against U.S. and Israeli aggression. He said Tehran had “no problem” with the United Arab Emirates.

The same stretch of days brought a second shock to energy shipping. The British navy-affiliated UKMTO reported that a projectile struck a merchant vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A fire broke out and the crew was evacuated. Iranian officials said one person was killed and three injured in a ship strike near Qeshm and Hengam islands.

For months the East-West pipeline had served as a main path for Middle East crude while Hormuz faced disrupted shipping. An attack on that bypass raises the price of energy. Brent crude last week again surpassed $100 a barrel.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on September 10 requesting military assistance against the Houthis, according to three Reuters sources. Washington has so far refrained from direct intervention but has agreed to provide intelligence.

Iran-backed Houthi forces widened the fight. They attacked a Saudi military base at Sharurah with drones and missiles. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the assault targeted “weapons depots and command and control centres that are managing the aggression against our nation and people.” On September 11, Houthi forces captured Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They also captured a key Red Sea port city in Yemen.

Trump said the Houthis had signaled they did not want the United States involved. “They would much prefer not having us involved, and they’re letting most ships go through. There’s just one country that they’re not too happy with, and we’ll get that straightened out,” he said.

U.S. forces have applied their own pressure at sea. Centcom reported that the United States has stopped about 100 commercial vessels over the past two months as part of a maritime blockade of Iranian ports.

Amy K. Mitchell, a National Security Institute senior fellow and former State Department adviser, said no single country can now guarantee safe passage through Hormuz. “I don’t think anyone has 100% control or even 50% control of the strait at this moment,” she said. The United States has domestic production and reserves that can cushion a short disruption, she said, while Europe is more exposed. “We’ll start to see the squeeze first on Europe, and then it will go around the globe from there.” Her prescription was plain. “The U.S. needs to find a way at this point to keep these straits open, at least one of them. Either work with Saudi Arabia or finish the job with Iran.”

Pezeshkian’s account — that Iran is only defending itself — deserves a fair hearing on its own terms. Set beside the week’s record, it faces a sequence of facts the Iranian government has not answered in public: drones from Iraqi territory where Iranian-backed groups operate; a projectile strike in the strait; Houthi seizures of Perim Island and a Red Sea port; and a direct request from Riyadh for help against those same forces. The record does not contain an independent forensic finding that pins the pipeline drones on Tehran. It does contain a pattern of pressure on the routes that carry oil to market.

Iraq’s response — firing a commander and sealing crossings — was an exercise of sovereignty on its own soil after an attack launched from Missan. American drivers and small businesses do not set policy in Missan or the Bab el-Mandeb.

Trump tied the end of the conflict to the U.S. political calendar and to prices at home. “Iran will end right after - maybe before - but it’ll end right after the midterms. Gasoline’s going to drop like a rock,” he said. He added, “I think very soon. I think it’ll be probably right after the mid-terms.”

The East-West pipeline still moves 4 million to 5 million barrels a day when open and remains one of the few large bypasses around Hormuz. Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on September 10 requesting military assistance against the Houthis, according to three Reuters sources.