Poll: Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu, Blocs Lack Majority

Israelis are scheduled to vote on October 27 in an election shaped by the Gaza war, security concerns and debate over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s responsibility for the October 7 attacks. A poll of 500 people puts Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 26 seats, ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud at 20, but projects neither camp near the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority: anti-Netanyahu parties are projected to win 54 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 49. Arab parties are projected to win 13 seats and the nonaligned Reservists party four, while Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White are projected to fall below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold; the poll’s margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. Coalition negotiations could be decisive, although some parties resist alliances involving Arab parties, and winning the most votes does not guarantee power. Millions of Palestinians living under Israeli control are ineligible to vote, while reports of rising settler violence and low prosecution rates highlight ongoing concerns about Palestinian security and access to justice.